Bitcoin volatility is down 56% but analysts still expect up to 20% BTC price move

Bitcoin’s sharp volatility decline coincides with a 114-day trading range, setting the stage for a potential 10% to 20% price move, but the direction remains uncertain.

Bitcoin's realized volatility has fallen to 17.2%, one of its lowest levels in recent months. Multiple Bitcoin analysts have said that long periods of price compression, alongside declining volatility, have historically preceded double-digit rallies. 

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. said that BTC’s one-week realized volatility, smoothed over a 30-day period, has fallen to 17.2% from 39% this quarter, a 56% decline.

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