Bitcoin’s $224K ‘fair value’ may emerge if sovereign debt fears deepen: Bitwise

A sovereign default-risk model estimates Bitcoin’s fair value at $224,000, as rising debt risks and bond-market stress could strengthen the asset’s long-term investment case.

New reporting from Bitwise suggests that Bitcoin's (BTC) undervaluation could expand if investors' concerns over sovereign debt deepen. The asset management firm said that mounting pressure in global bond markets and rising government debt levels could strengthen Bitcoin's role as a hedge against macroeconomic risks, with one valuation model suggesting a theoretical fair value of $224,000. 

Bitwise pointed to mounting pressure across the global bond markets. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates governments and companies will need to borrow roughly $29 trillion in 2026, up 17% from 2024 and nearly double the amount raised a decade ago. Around 78% of OECD government borrowing is expected to be used solely to refinance existing debt.

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