Move Over M2: Data Shows Treasury T-Bill Issuance Drives Bitcoin Price Cycles

TLDR: Treasury T-bill issuance holds a +0.80 correlation with Bitcoin price over the last four years of data. M2 money supply has decoupled from Bitcoin, making it an unreliable indicator for forecasting price direction. The Fed balance sheet scores a near-zero correlation of -0.07 with Bitcoin, removing it as a credible signal. T-bill issuance peaked [...]

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