$77M on the Edge of Interpretation: How One Polymarket Market Turned a Ceasefire Into a Legal Dispute

A $77 million dispute on Polymarket is testing one of the central promises of prediction markets: that public facts can be translated into clear financial outcomes. The market in question asks whether the “US x Iran ceasefire” was extended by April 22, 2026. On paper, the question appears straightforward. A two-week ceasefire was announced on [...]

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