Bitcoin Power Law Explained: The Model, the Chart and Where BTC Sits Now

By the SecureShift Team · Updated November 13, 2026

Disclosure: SecureShift offers non-custodial BTC swaps. Model levels are third-party estimates and not predictions we endorse. Educational content, not financial advice.

What is the Bitcoin power law?

A power law is a relationship where one quantity changes as a fixed power of another. Physicist Giovanni Santostasi popularized the idea that Bitcoin's price follows a power law of time, not a fixed growth percentage. Earlier versions were discussed by analysts such as Harold Christopher Burger and others around 2018–2019.

Unlike stock-to-flow (which tied price to halvings and broke down after 2021), the power law fits Bitcoin's entire history with one smooth curve. Growth slows over time, but never stops in the model.

The formula

The usual form:

Price(t) = A × t^n

• t = days since the genesis block (Jan 3, 2009)
• n ≈ 5.7–5.8 (the slope on a log-log chart)
• A = a very small constant fitted to the data (on the order of 10^-17)

Plotted on log-log axes, this becomes a straight line: log(price) = log(A) + n × log(t). Analysts draw parallel lines below and above it for support (cycle floors) and resistance (bubble peaks).

Power law levels for 2026–2030

One widely cited set of model projections (via Bitbo charts):

Different implementations use slightly different fits, so you'll see variations of 10–20% between sites.

Where BTC sits on the model now

In mid-November 2026, BTC trades around $71,000, down from its October 2025 peak near $126,000. That puts it:

• Roughly 60% below the model's fair-value line.
• Just above the rising support line, which climbs every day.

In past cycles, touching the support line coincided with major bottoms. Power-law supporters see the current zone as historically attractive; skeptics point out that support rising each day means price must keep rising to avoid "breaking" the model.

Criticisms and limits

• Curve fitting. Any smooth growth curve can be fitted to past data; that doesn't prove causation.
• Assumes adoption grows forever. Regulation, competition or a technical failure could break the trend.
• Wide bands. A range from $69K to $615K for one date is too wide for trading decisions.
• Ignores macro shocks such as rate hikes, recessions or ETF outflows.
• Academic debate — recent papers argue the statistical structure is weaker than claimed, even if long-range forecasts look good.

Use it as a long-term context tool, not a short-term signal.

Power law vs other Bitcoin models

FAQ

Who created the Bitcoin power law?

It's most associated with Giovanni Santostasi, with earlier work by other analysts around 2018–2019.

What does the power law predict for Bitcoin in 2030?

Common implementations put end-2030 fair value around $640K, with support near $225K. These are model outputs, not forecasts to rely on.

Has Bitcoin ever broken below the power law support?

Briefly, in some fits, during extreme crashes. Most versions show the line held at the major cycle bottoms.

Is "power law bitcoin" the same as "bitcoin power law"?

Yes, both refer to the same model.