Prediction markets boom on Iran bets as Congress eyes ban

Iran-linked contracts drove prediction market activity higher as the CFTC opened rulemaking and Democrats moved to ban war and death bets.

Prediction market activity has climbed sharply as traders flock to contracts tied to the escalating US-Iran conflict, while Washington moves toward clearer federal rules for event contracts and a legislative push to explicitly bar markets tied to war, terrorism and death.

Notional trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi rose to new all-time highs during the week ending Monday, March 9, to $2.49 billion and $2.85 billion, respectively, according to Token Terminal data. The growing activity has pushed the total notional volume across all prediction markets to $145 billion through 2.8 million unique users, data from Dune shows.

While the ongoing conflict drives more activity to these platforms, US regulators are seeking public feedback on new prediction market legislation and weighing a potential ban on war and terrorism-related event contracts.

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