Polymarket bets that Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardon surge to 12%

Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried's odds on Polymarket of being pardoned by US President Trump have more than doubled to around 12% after Changpeng Zhao was pardoned.

Polymarket bettors have now tipped a 12% chance that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried will be pardoned this year, after Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao was let off the hook this week. 

Polymarket odds for “Who will Trump pardon in 2025” saw SBF’s odds rise from 5.6% to 12% in 12 hours, with more than $6.5 million worth of bets placed in that market, including $302,090 for the convicted crypto fraudster.

Another market on whether SBF will be “Released from custody in 2025” rose from 4.3% to 19.1% before falling back to 15.5%.

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