Michael B. Jordan takes the lead on Polymarket for Oscars Best Actor

"Sinners" star Jordan's odds of winning the Best Actor honors at next week's Academy Awards were only 10% on March 1, hours before he won SAG's top male actor award.

Actor Michael B. Jordan overtook Timothée Chalamet on prediction market platform Polymarket as most likely to win “Best Actor” at the 2026 Oscars awards show, with his odds rising by over 4x since March 1.

Last week, the “Sinners” star won the best actor award at the Actor Awards, formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards, or SAG.

A week out from the Academy Awards, Polymarket traders place Jordan’s odds of winning the award at about 47%, while Chalamet is a close second at 45%, Leonardo DiCaprio is at 5%, Wagner Moura has 4% odds and Ethan Hawke has only 1% odds. Chalamet was in the lead until Saturday.

Jordan was nominated for an Oscar for his role as twin brothers Smoke and Stack Moore in the 2025 vampire horror film “Sinners.” Chalamet was nominated for his role in “Marty Supreme,” a fictional drama film about a table tennis player.

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