Kalshi data could inform Federal Reserve policy: Fed researchers

Researchers said Kalshi’s “rich intraday dynamics” enable it to measure expectations in real-time when major financial events and announcements are made.

Three researchers at the US Federal Reserve argue that prediction market Kalshi can better measure macroeconomic expectations in real time than existing solutions and thus should be incorporated into the Fed’s decision-making process.

The “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets” paper was released on Feb. 12 by Federal Reserve Board principal economist Anthony Diercks, Federal Reserve research assistant Jared Dean Katz and Johns Hopkins research associate Jonathan Wright.

Kalshi data were compared with traditional surveys and market-implied forecasts to examine how beliefs about future economic outcomes change in response to macroeconomic news and policymakers’ statements.

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