Bitcoin price, onchain flows and global macro: Here’s what changed in 2025

Bitcoin’s technical and onchain market structure was robust throughout 2025, but ever-shifting macroeconomic conditions eventually put a cap on BTC price. Will the trend shift in 2026?

Bitcoin’s 2024–2025 price action highlighted a disconnect between improving high-timeframe onchain structure and restrictive macroeconomic conditions. While crypto-native liquidity and supply dynamics strengthened during Bitcoin’s (BTC) 2024 rally, external variables, like elevated real yields and Federal Reserve balance sheet contraction, imposed valuation limits as the cycle progressed.

Key takeaways

Bitcoin rallied to above $100,000 from $42,000 in 2024 alongside rising stablecoin inflows and sustained BTC exchange outflows.

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