Bitcoin gained 655% the last time this supply in profit metric dropped to 50%

Bitcoin’s total supply in profit metric fell below 50% in February, a threshold linked to previous BTC accumulation phases. Does data predict a similar outcome?

The total Bitcoin (BTC) supply in profit stands at 60.6% on Thursday, continuing to move within a range historically associated with market cycle resets. The metric previously dropped to 50.8% on Feb. 5, its lowest level since January 2, 2023, leaving a large share of holders at breakeven or at a loss.

Similar conditions in the past cycles have preceded strong upside moves. In January 2023, BTC traded at $16,682 when profitability levels were comparable at 51%, before rallying 655% to $126,000 in 2025.

A similar setup occurred in March 2020, when the total supply in profit fell below 50% as BTC traded at $6,500, ahead of a move to $69,000 in 2021.

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