Bitcoin bottom fractal calls for 130% rally, but is the model valid in 2026?

A rare Bitcoin bottom signal from 2023 has flashed again, but the 2026 macroeconomic backdrop calls its validity into question. Can BTC price defy the odds?

A Bitcoin (BTC) bottom signal that appeared in 2023, ahead of a 130% rally in 2024, has flashed again this week, raising the possibility that the price is nearing another bullish inflection point. 

At the same time, the broader data of liquidity, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, and macroeconomic data changes the environment from two years ago, suggesting that the path forward may not mirror the previous cycle’s.

Data aggregator Swissblock noted that Bitcoin has now logged 25 consecutive days in its “extreme high risk” zone, the longest stretch on record and above the 23-day peak seen in 2023. Historically, an extended stay in this zone has aligned with late-stage drawdowns or a bottom signal.

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