57% of Kalshi bettors predict Gemini will emerge as top AI text model in 2025

Gemini’s lead comes after a series of updates, while OpenAI’s ChatGPT and xAI’s Grok have suffered missteps.

Bettors on Kalshi, a prediction market, forecast that Google’s Gemini will emerge as the top artificial intelligence text model by the end of 2025. The positions reflect the ongoing developments of Gemini’s competitors as the large language model (LLM) race heats up.

Since Tuesday, Gemini has taken a commanding lead with 57% of users betting on the model, up from 48.1% on the previous date. During that same time, OpenAI’s ChatGPT model has fallen to 20% from 25.4%, and xAI’s Grok odds have decreased to 15% from 18.8%.

This particular Kalshi prediction scenario will resolve on Dec. 31, with bettors of the winning model receiving their allotted amount. The LM Arena Leaderboard, “an open platform where everyone can [...] access, explore and interact with the world’s leading AI models,” will verify the outcome. Currently, $7.4 million in volume has been seen on this prediction scenario.

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