50% of Bitcoin's past 24 months ended in gains: Economist

Economist Timothy Peterson expects Bitcoin to trade above its current level by December, though some analysts are pushing back on that view.

Half of the months over the past two years have delivered positive returns for Bitcoin, which may be a strong sign that it will be higher than its current price in December, an economist said.

“50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now,” economist Timothy Peterson said in an X post on Saturday. In 2025, Bitcoin posted gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September, while the other six months ended lower, according to CoinGlass.

Peterson explained that he uses the metric to count the number of positive months in any 24-month period to identify possible inflection points.

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